July 13, 2006

Note to Bill Gates: I'll take your bet, for $10,000.

Hey, Bill, you recently went on record saying that you felt Windows Vista had an 80% chance of shipping by January, 2007. Fine, I'll take that bet. I've got $10,000 that says you do NOT ship by then.

Now, you are (still) the Chairman of Microsoft. You've got inside information on this issue. You can talk to the engineers, you can look at the source code, you can read reports from your managers. You've got people you pay (in aggregate) millions of dollars to estimate this kind of thing. You've spent $8 billion writing this crap.

I, on the other hand, am just some guy. I don't even read the news about Microsoft much, except when you guys get slapped with another antitrust lawsuit or fine, or when you try to buy your way out of hell by giving Windows software to another school or something.

Still, I'm willing to risk $10,000 of my money against $30,000 of yours that you do NOT ship Vista by January. (That's 1 to 3 odds, for bookie-types.) Since your stated "80%" means you think the odds are 4 to 1 against slipping, I'm giving you better odds than you asked for -- you should really be putting up $40,000 to make this fair, but I want to make it more attractive for you. I know you're famous for being cheap frugal.

You ask why? Because you can't throw money at every problem to solve it, Bill. You can't just keep adding engineers and money to a giant, ugly mess and hope that, eventually, it'll become a polished, tight piece of art. No art was ever created by committee. Nothing great was ever designed by 4,000 engineers. Ever.

You said, "If the feedback from the beta tests shows it is not ready for prime time, I'd be glad to delay it." Glad? Really? Well, get used to happiness, I guess. Because you know that, if you're lucky, in January you're going to squirm and weasel and release a "limited version" that you "recommend" only for, uh, say, professional IT guys who only have one eye, and suicide kings. Then, when you get a bunch of press on how crappy that version of Vista is, you'll quietly cut more and more features from it until you end up with the "home" version, which will look mysteriously like XP with some new paint.

But what do I know? You're the billionaire, I'm just some dude with a blog and a fistful of design awards.

So put your money where your mouth is, big guy. I'm calling you out. I'm steppin' to you. You just got served. If you really believe what you said, this is a slam-dunk. This is money in the bank, baby. Unless, uh, you know full well there isn't a chance in hell you can ship that giant spaghetti monster to consumers "on time". (Where "on time" means "only six years late.")

--

On a personal and professional note, if you're not Bill Gates but you are cheap still looking for a deal, Delicious Library is on sale right now for what is probably the last time ever -- we're going into stores soon, and when we do we're not allowed to undercut them with discounts (like this one). So, strike while the iron is hot, make hay while the sun shines, win one for the gipper, and all that rot, wot wot, and, er, and, uh, well, please give me some money, is what I'm saying.

Because you know Bill Gates is going to want me to put the $10K in escrow up-front.

Labels:

134 Comments:

Anonymous Jesper said...

Being very, very, picky here, but feeling like pointing it out: Bill Gates in not the CEO of Microsoft and hasn't been for some time - he's the "Chief Software Architect", and the CEO is Ballmer (he with the chairs and developers, yes). I'll go back to finish reading the post now. :)

July 13, 2006 4:47 PM

 
Blogger Ryos said...

It's too bad Bill won't take the bet, as it'd be interesting to hear how it felt to give $10,000 to the richest man in the world. Though, with the way he seems to be giving money away of late, it would probably go to charity anyway.

Maybe I'm missing the point here. I mean, I dislike Windows as much as the next guy, and I've never seen a Vista beta. But from what I hear, all indications point to a successful January release.

I even hear it's pretty good. Who knows? It might just be the first Windows I can stand to use for more than five minutes. (Har har, that's a good one. I mean, you think Apple needs to Fix the Flippin' Finder? Try using Windows Explorer for a while!)

This random and pointless comment brought to you by the letter R.

July 13, 2006 5:51 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wil, I was under the impression you left OmniGroup because they sold their software in retail stores and you hated the idea. Why the change?

July 13, 2006 5:55 PM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Anonymous:

I left The Omni Group because I was asked to leave.

One of the policies there that I didn't like was paying an aggregator (eg, Channel Sources, aka CSDC) to take our products to a distributor (eg, Navarre) who would take a cut and then take our products to huge national chains (eg, CompUSA) who would then take a cut, do a really lousy job of selling them, and then take another cut on any they sold.

I have no idea if this is currently the case at Omni, this was just the situation we originally set up for distribution, and then discovered was kind of a screw.

I have nothing against boxes per se. I've always felt that if I could avoid getting boned in the process, it'd be fun to be in stores, although there are clearly disadvantages as well (eg, I can't do sales, I have to give my distributors and stores more lead-time on new releases).

-Wil

July 13, 2006 6:11 PM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Jesper: thanks, you're right, I conflated CEO and Chairman. Fixed.

July 13, 2006 6:12 PM

 
Anonymous viperteq said...

Wil Shipley’s $10,000 bet

"Wil Shipley, developer of Delicious Library for Mac OS X, challenges Bill Gates to a $10,000 bet that Windows Vista will not ship by january 2007......."

July 13, 2006 6:57 PM

 
Anonymous xyz3 said...

You know Will - This is an interesting post, surely the most ballsy thing I have read in quite some time, but I am not sure I am getting the point. Bill did make a statement regarding the Vista release that read more like a weather prediction: "80 % chance of Vista on Friday, be sure to wear your galoshes if you go out.", but I have a feeling he knows the code/state of development is a mess, and won't be rushing Vista out the door just because Will says we can't.

Now - after reading your post - all the way to the end -I recall a quicktime movie where
Dvorak admits to angering mac users to drive traffic to his site.

http://www.youtube.com/v/gOHzHVF-4Mg

Marketing seems to take many forms, and uh - oh - I get the point now.. ; )

I say drop the 10,000 deal, and bet Bill that you will use Windows Vista for three months if it ships on time, and if it doesn't, Bill will use a Mac for 3 months. Now that would be something.. That would be genius marketing.

July 13, 2006 7:53 PM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Look, Bill's talking about Vista isn't like a weather forecast, unless the forecaster is, like, Storm (the X-Men). THE DUDE CONTROLS MICROSOFT.

Entire sectors of the economy are based around Microsoft's actions. They need to be honest about these things.

If I said, "I'm 80% sure I'll ship Delicious Library 2 tomorrow," and then it slipped, say, three months, then my customers would be pissed as heck at me for what was obviously a lie. And Delicious Library is (for the most part) not central to our customers' business -- Windows is, for many people.

What I'm pointing out here is that Bill is lying, and I want to say it NOW, BEFORE it slips, so that later we can look back and have a record of it. He's starting to soften the blow, so when January comes he can say, "Well, I did say only 80%," and there won't be a giant news cycle about how Microsoft has, again, screwed the pooch.

July 13, 2006 8:32 PM

 
Anonymous Daniel Brauer said...

I like your style, Wil. A lot of intelligent Mac-users are very careful not to be too openly critical of Microsoft for fear of being labelled "Maclots", or whatever. The result, as I see it, is that Microsoft gets a lot more respect than it deserves because so many of their detractors are loudmouthed idiots. It's good to see someone who knows what they're talking about call Microsoft and Gates on their shortcomings.

July 13, 2006 8:57 PM

 
Anonymous Mark said...

Brilliant, brilliant marketing ploy. I tip my hat in your general direction.

July 13, 2006 9:08 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

how about the Apollo spacecraft? :P

July 13, 2006 11:06 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OK, OK, I just bought Delicious Library. You called my bluff on the gambler's sale. So now that I've finally done so, you can go ahead and release 2.0 (already!) and charge me for the upgrade. Because we both know that's the booby trap you've set for me, right? :)

July 14, 2006 12:31 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

im sorry, its clearly done for marketing purposes.

remove the last paragraph, and it's a useless post.

why?, because the market isnt going to rely on you to save it.
what you know, others know too.

so for me, this is a downfall from your blog...

July 14, 2006 12:34 AM

 
Anonymous Mark said...

I know you're famous for being -cheap- frugal.

What, you criticising the man for not throwing his money around? "Damn idiot sticks his money in the bank instead of spending it on toys, what the hell is wrong with him?" Hardly seems a fair criticism.

July 14, 2006 1:12 AM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

There's a difference between being cheap and not throwing your money around. Paul Allen has invested incredibly in Seattle, making it a better city, or at least trying, in myriad ways. Bill -- well, he's kind of a miser.

When Omni first gave money to the Seattle Zoo, many years ago, they told me I was giving more than Microsoft was.

The whole company.

July 14, 2006 1:25 AM

 
Blogger leeg said...

Is this the same Bill Gates who's just stepped down from M$ to work full-time for his "I'm going to give all my billions away" foundation? That frugal Bill Gates? I guess if you save a few billions, then give away a few billions, everyone remembers you for having saved those billions...

I hate M$' crapware and techniques, but I also agree with daniel: "Microsoft gets a lot more respect than it deserves because so many of their detractors are loudmouthed idiots." So much M$-bashing is based on what they did before, not what they're doing now; call them out on being fined >€500M for anticompetitive behaviour, for being six years behind and having crap products, but calling Gates out for not giving his cash away is in the same "so last century" league as laughing that your 4GB ProZacMacPlusProBookPro has more than the "enough for anybody" limit of 640kB.

I leave discussions of whether his conscience is altruistic, or guilty, requiring the donation of all his cash as an exercise for the readers.

July 14, 2006 2:15 AM

 
Anonymous Matt said...

I think you're right. It's a case where anything less certain than 'It will ship on January 1, 2007 at 12:01 EST' means it isn't going to ship.

July 14, 2006 5:55 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think you need some more specific terms Will. From what I recall, Microsoft's plan is to release Vista in two stages. First to big corporations, and then to normal people (with a difference of about 2 months between).

So which are you betting on?

How about the date Dell or HP (or anyone else for that matter, it's just been so long that I can't remember who else is a major manufacturer!), start shipping a computer with Vista pre-installed.

Or perhaps the date you can by a retail copy in a store.

July 14, 2006 5:56 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not a Gates fan, but Bill is hardly a miser. He gives away LOADS of money. Since 1994 his foundation (funded by his money) has given away 10.8 billion dollars to global health and education causes. Like I said, I'm not a fan of Gates. His business practices might be loathsome, but his generosity is not.

July 14, 2006 6:09 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Nothing great was ever designed by 4,000 engineers."

I believe this comment to be true, but the question is if Vista is being designed by 4,000 engineers or built by 4,000 engineers. Clearly all major public works that have also have artistic merit have been built by a lot of people. Think Golden Gate Bridge, Sydney Opera House, etc....

So my question is: are you sure that all those engineers are designers/architects, or are they following a plan that was designed by a chief desginer/architect?

July 14, 2006 6:41 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"When Omni first gave money to the Seattle Zoo, many years ago, they told me I was giving more than Microsoft was."

Yeah--you know how stingy Bill is. Oh wait--how are you doing at malaria? Better than $258.3M for research?
http://www.gatesfoundation.org/GlobalHealth/Pri_Diseases/Malaria/Announcements/Announce-051030.htm

July 14, 2006 7:50 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Nothing great was ever designed by 4,000 engineers."

I assume you mean software, right? Because I'm guessing that the Apollo Program employed at least that many scientists/engineers, and that's just about the greatest thing ever done. WE WALKED ON A DIFFERENT WORLD, PEOPLE!!!

Also, i know it's not 4,000, but surely Apple has several hundred people working on OSX, which is insanely great.

Same deal with Formula 1 cars, the internet, the Hoover Dam, etc.

I think the thesis is really, "Nothing great was ever designed by 4,000 MS engineers." You can even ditch the number and the word "engineers" and it's still true!

Sorry, had to get that out.

July 14, 2006 7:56 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

IMHO, Mr. Gates should be using some of that millions of charity dollars to do what he is paid to do... make quality software and a quality os. Not make himself feel better about giving the world a crappy product.

July 14, 2006 8:20 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well just to clarify the bet they are planning to ship Vista to Corporate users in November, but Home users in Jan 2007. So if corp users get it, does that mean Bill wins the bet? Mayble clarify the consumer version is what the bet is on.

July 14, 2006 8:30 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bill gates is one of the most famous philanthropists of our time. Why don't you drop your cocky, arrogant tone, and donate some of your own money before attacking him (frugal? Cheap?? I think that would be you, sir.)

July 14, 2006 8:32 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am a shipping Mac Pro away from making the big switch, and I can hardly wait.

But crap like this is what'll keep me from really joining the Mac community. I'll use (and love, I suspect) the machines, but all this incessant, constant Windows bashing and all around smug superiority is a HUGE put off.

July 14, 2006 8:33 AM

 
Anonymous Joshua Monroe said...

Bill Gates works like this, He rips the world off by billions of dollars by selling crappy software at high prices and making you feel like you can't buy anything else and then turns around and after screwing the world, trys to make the world a better place by finding cures and feeding children.
Seems weird to me.

July 14, 2006 8:37 AM

 
Anonymous Bill Gates said...

You're on sonny boy!

July 14, 2006 8:39 AM

 
Anonymous Andrew Slifer said...

And let me guess... while blogging this, your Windows Media Player is letting you know what track is on now, your Windows XP system is updating, and this blog is being written to a Windows NT Server


I think the best part of the blog is when you say "But what do I know, he's the billionaire and I've just got this blog" because thats very true... what DO you know? Perhaps not always on time, but so far Bill Gates has done a pretty good job at releasing the next generation of operating systems, that should be apparent considering most of the industry is using a Windows machine (hell, now people are buying Macs and immediately installing XP!)

I suppose Bill has a quality over quantity (except that whole ME thing, but I try hard not to blame that one on him) and people like you can't seem to accept that. So go back to being a hypocrit and using XP, or go back to paying for your service packs by using Mac OS X, either way, keep your weak bets to yourself

July 14, 2006 8:48 AM

 
Blogger Joel Esler said...

I'll give it to you. You have ba**s. (or guts.).. and I like that. Anyone who is willing to put their money where their mouth is, is okay with me. I might just buy your product because I respect it that much.

I don't think he'll take you up on it, but here's hoping he does. Cheers.

Joel
http://esler.is-a-geek.net

July 14, 2006 8:53 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Man, are you an arrogant, grade-A douchebag. Nobody cares about you or your stupid attempt at publicity, you desperate whore.

July 14, 2006 8:56 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I bet you 2 dollars that you lose your 10,000 dollar bet

July 14, 2006 8:57 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I bet you 2 dollars that you lose your 10,000 dollar bet

July 14, 2006 8:57 AM

 
Blogger Sören 'chucker' Kuklau said...

Oh dear, now it's turning into a pro-Gates vs. anti-Gates flamewar.

For what it's worth, I don't really think Bill Gates is currently(!) cheap; his Foundation contributions are excellent. However, I believe much of this is due to the influence of his wife, Melinda. It seems to me Bill was quite different in character before they got together; yes, to the point of being "stingy".

As for Windows, it's not a bad OS per se; it is, however, an atrocious OS if you consider the fucking homongous resources Microsoft puts into it every passing day. Yes, I know about the mythical man-month. That's not the point. The point is that, if Apple, with far fewer resources, can pull off amazing advances between Cheetah/Puma and Jaguar, Jaguar and Panther and Panther and Tiger, within about one and a half years each on average, then Microsoft should be able to as well, yet they haven't been. Have you looked at Vista's DVD Maker? It's bound to give you some "WTF" moments. A software that's supposed to ship with the OS, and a showcase application for the new WinFX/.NET 3.0 APIs, and it looks like a terrible "I can program too!" afternoon intern project.

There's some great people at Microsoft, and there's lots and lots of resourceful research being done, but it's all coming to waste. That's the problem. And Gates? He ain't doing shit about it. Ballmer? Allchin? Anyone? None of them are. Because they don't have to; the company "runs fine" as it is: it generates money.

Vista has been and continues to be a disaster, and it's not even out yet. I wouldn't be so bold as to believe that Vista will slip even further; rather, I believe they'll merely pull the usual overpromise and underdeliver thing (what great features, exactly, are left anyway? Any that Tiger doesn't have? Any at all?) and ship something buggy, crashy and barely working, but still "good enough". People will still be stupid enough to buy it. It will still quickly reach over 50% market share, with XP covering another third. People will continue to complain over the same things they've been complaining about all along, about Microsoft sucks this and Microsoft sucks that — but they won't be consequential and actually move away to alternatives, which, yes, do exist.

My point, if I have any at all, is that Shipley's beta is laudable. Gates's 80% estimate, on the other end, is to be shunned.

July 14, 2006 9:00 AM

 
Blogger Joel Esler said...

--->Andrew Slifer

He's a mac developer. I'd bet he runs OSX. :)

As for his server....

$ nc 67.15.4.56 80
GET / HTTP/1.0

HTTP/1.1 200 OK
Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2006 15:50:08 GMT
Server: Apache

So... He's not running IIS. Don't know if he's running NT. But I doubt it.

Oh, btw. m$ sux. I'm not an Apple Fanboi. I'm a "!Microsoft" fanboi.

(BTW -- the "!" character, for you Windows people... means 'NOT')

July 14, 2006 9:02 AM

 
Anonymous leonard shelby said...

"And let me guess... while blogging this, your Windows Media Player is letting you know what track is on now, your Windows XP system is updating, and this blog is being written to a Windows NT Server"

LMAO.
hardly...

July 14, 2006 9:05 AM

 
Anonymous MaxPowers said...

Money can buy arrogance cant it? Both you and Bill have plenty of it.. Do me a favor and pull your elitist head out of your ass. Hey, at least you got a few hits on your pointless little blog, right?

July 14, 2006 9:07 AM

 
Anonymous MaxPowers said...

Money can buy arrogance cant it? Both you and Bill have plenty of it.. Do me a favor and pull your elitist head out of your ass. Hey, at least you got a few hits on your pointless little blog, right?

July 14, 2006 9:08 AM

 
Blogger Grant said...

Why not do something useful with your money? Follow an example set by, oh I don't know.. Bill Gates or someone.. and donate it to a worthwhile cause and get off your high horse.

July 14, 2006 9:09 AM

 
Anonymous Richard Chuo said...

For me, Bill Gates is not giving away his money. That is his another career out of Microsoft. He just manages his fortunate in different way.

You can call me judging, I do not think he really needs to let the whole world know he is 'giving away' tons of money. There are many people giving away their 40% or more of their fortunate without mentioning it at all. Does it mean Bill Gates has got a BIGGER loving heart than those who CHOOSE not to talk about their goodwill in public (and in their name)?

This may reflect Microsoft's corporate culture and affect their products.

July 14, 2006 9:11 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are a sad sack of attention whore.

Oh, but I forgot about your "fist full of design awards", as if that somehow makes this pissing-in-the-wind demonstration somehow legitimate.

I don't really care about Vista, but I hope it's on time now so that one more arrogant, yipping chihuahua, jackass will have his STFU papers served to him.

July 14, 2006 9:20 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wil, I need to be honest, this makes you look a bit sad. Other posters are right... Bill isn't even going to acknowledge your bet and certainly won't release Vista before MS is ready just because you 'stepped up.' You just sound desperate, pissed off, and a little sour you're still struggling to be as successful as you'd like to be. Lets be honest, your entire article ended in an advertisement. Isn't that what this is all about? Disappointing and sad. Go write something useful.

July 14, 2006 9:21 AM

 
Blogger Reginald Braithwaite said...

First off, best of luck with Delicious Monster.

Second, ... well ... I was going to say something about not letting the grinders get you down, but I'm sure your response to all of these flames will be level-headed.

Now about challenging BillG to a bet... I applaud, even though we both know you're tilting at a windmill on this one. Sure, it's a provocative article. Sure it gets you publicity. Hopefully it does drive sales. What else, exactly, is the little guy to do if not be gutsy and live on the edge? Go for it.

It's not like you got up in the morning and had to decide whether to pick a fight with the 800 lb. Gorilla or to go out and blow M$250 on ads accusing your own customers of being dinosaurs becuase they're perfectly happy with the software you've already sold them.

I'm sure you already know this, but any time you attack people's cherished conventions they will interpret it as an attack on their choices, and by extension, a personal attack on them. A slam on Windows is a slam on people's security blanket. I'm sure you appreciate how that goes double for slams on Apple as well :-)

Anyways, carry on. The world is a better place with your blog in it.

my own shameless personal plug.

July 14, 2006 9:57 AM

 
Anonymous Rick Russie said...

Amazing. Simply Amazing!
...so what are you gonna do with the $30,000?

July 14, 2006 10:01 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow, what a childish rant. It's just computer dude. Chill out. Get over Apple amd get over "big evil MS" and go out and have a life. Vista will ship when it ships and Apple will still have 2-3% marketshare. NEXT.

July 14, 2006 10:07 AM

 
Anonymous Bill Gates said...

You're on.

July 14, 2006 10:08 AM

 
Anonymous someone who knows something said...

os x was over a decade delayed, an went through multiple incarnations before it was released. while you're probably right about vista being a piece of crap and being delayed even further, you're still an idiot.

July 14, 2006 10:10 AM

 
Anonymous Oakenshield said...

Poor Wil.

Don't you realize that to publish your thoughts and opinions online opens you to all sorts of abuse?

You obviously haven't realized that if you don't agree with every one of your readers at every conceivable point in time, you're wrong...and/or arrogant. How DARE you invoke your 1st Amendment rights!

You must realize: People who think you're wrong are very threatened by such opinions. Ask Rush Limbaugh. Ask Al Franken.

If either one of them has the audacity to proclaim that water is very thirst-quenching, they'll have 261 bloggers/posters defaming them and calling them dirtbags for having the opinion that water is vital to life.

Water is Pro-Life, as it were. Gasp.

So, since I don't agree with everything you've stated in this entry, I feel it is now time to do penance, and receive upon your furrowed brow my inflammatory insult:

You sir, are a filthy p'tahk.

That wasn't so bad, was it? Now, you've realized the situation you're in, and I realize that I've done my duty by calling names since I don't agree wholly with you.

g_d bless Amerika.

July 14, 2006 10:15 AM

 
Anonymous FredB said...

Thanks for the fun, Will.

Just ignore the humorless bitchers.

July 14, 2006 10:30 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wil, looks like you went and riled up the Win-Bots.
Good job! heh heh

July 14, 2006 10:38 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can we bet about when Delicious Library 2 will be released?

Seriously Wil, isn't the pot calling the kettle black?

July 14, 2006 11:03 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

<cough/> Copland...

July 14, 2006 11:06 AM

 
Blogger Reginald Braithwaite said...

<cough/> Copland

<cough/> Taligent!

That being said, where did Will say that Apple can do no wrong? He's betting on Vista, not trying to buy into a spread between OS X and Windows release dates ;-)

July 14, 2006 11:27 AM

 
Blogger Jonathan said...

Is it really a big deal if Vista doesnt ship?

I mean, really. Windows XP is more than enough for 99.99% of the people out there. Saying that Windows XP isnt good enough for business applications is total bull. No business is being held up in decisions here. Windows XP will still serve people for years to come. Sheesh, some people still havent upgraded from 98 yet.

Crap, Vista didnt ship in January. Now I'll have to wait for that crucial feature that I need for business to ship in a few months.... Wait, what feature is that?

And Bill does some great things with his foundation. He definitely isnt "cheap" or "frugal" there.

July 14, 2006 11:29 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You should have just made it a $10k bet. It's not like he'll take the bet anyway, and you would have made the point stronger. Also, bto he's not the CEO of microsoft.

July 14, 2006 12:05 PM

 
Blogger Ken Cieszykowski said...

To "someone who knows something"

Mac OSX started with the NeXtstep operating system that Steve Jobs started when he was ousted from Apple. NeXtOS had a few actual releases, and when Jobs was brought back to Apple in 1997, Apple wanted to fuse OS9 and NeXT together into OSX.

Anyways, OSX public beta came out right around 2000, with a 10.0 shipping in March, 2001. Hardly "delayed for a decade" as you put it. In fact, it took four years to get from NeXTStep and OS9 to OSX... there was no release date panned out for it. Yes Apple had problems in the mid 90's with operating systems, and I will admit they were pretty crappy, but the key ingrediant to Apple is Steve Jobs (even though he's a tad pretentious).

I'm still not sure how I feel about this post, but it is sad that Vista has been pushed back so much. I ran a beta 2 for a week or so and came across a ton of bugs.... in comparison, the Beta 2 of XP was essentially a release candidate.

You don't have any right to call Will an idiot, he is entitled to his own opinion whether you agree with it or not. In this case I agree, Vista should have been out the door long ago, or they shouldn't have placed such a "new and revolutionary" sticker on the OS.

July 14, 2006 12:45 PM

 
Blogger Daniel Klotz said...

Big props for an entertaining and astute post.

Perhaps 8,000 engineers can't create something beautiful, but an even-larger international community is making GNU/Linux better every day, no?

July 14, 2006 1:57 PM

 
Anonymous Jeff Foster said...

wow... that's a lot of hate-comments for what is essentially just a cute little jab at MS.

i wonder how people get so angry at stuff like this. i thought it was funny.

and Bill's master plan of stealing from the poor then giving some back to the poor is already panning out for him, people already using his "philanthropy" as a defense against 20 years of silicon-valley piracy.

He was a dickface and ran a disgusting company. now he's giving money to a worthy cause. that doesn't change that he was a dickface that ran a disgusting company. get over it.

anyway, i enjoyed this. cheers!

July 14, 2006 2:26 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Microsoft sucks ass I totally agree.......

July 14, 2006 2:27 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I thought Mac fanatics were bad, but apparently the Gates' Witnesses are even worse than the Amiga gang!

I have just one comment on Gates, his foundation was a genial marketing move from his (or his wife's) part. Giving away some of the money he has acquired thru an illegal monopoly seems to do the trick. People see him as some kind of a saint.

If I rob a bank and give some of the plunder to cancer research (or similar) is robbing a bank morally OK? Yes I'm exaggerating, but I hope you see the analogy. In my opinion, using illegally and immorally acquired cash to do good does not fix the original sins.

-- Jussi

July 14, 2006 3:59 PM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Hmm. Ignoring the more blatant trolls, I'd like to point out that just because someone doesn't _publicly_ give to charity, doesn't mean he doesn't do give to charity.

But, in fact, I do publicly give to charity. I've always been of the opinion that it's a corporation's duty to give to charity _and_ inspire/shame other corporations into doing so, as well.

Delicious Monster gave about 1% of its gross sales to charity last year, which is a bigger percentage than, say, Google (who gives 1% of its _profits_).

Of course, Google makes a billion times as much as we do, so they do 10,000x more good than we do, and bully for them. I love Sergey and LP and am continually inspired by their example of running an ethical company.

I should clarify that I salute Bill for (finally) giving to charity, although I'll admit I was very skeptical when he started doing it exactly after his company was really attacked by the feds for being a monopoly. It's a lot like Bush's "go to war" button whenever his administration is in trouble. It's a little, well, suspicious.

But, hey, Bill's doing a lot of good now, and although in my mind you can't wash blood money by giving some percentage of it to charities, it's certainly better than him building another palace for himself and his Republican friends.

I have noticed that basically every large independent philanthropic organization (and/or president) is funded from the fortune of someone that was considered a robber-baron or a war profiteer, so I suppose in twenty years everyone will just know the Gates Foundation as a source of good and not remember any of the really crappy thing Microsoft did under him.

And that's probably for the better. But, for now, I'm gonna make fun of the guy for the crap he pulls, no matter how much money he gives to charity.

July 14, 2006 4:10 PM

 
Anonymous jd said...

Looking at what bets people are willing to make is the canonical way to figure out what degree of confidence they have in a claim.

Example #1:

Suppose there's a funky new lottery in town with two different kinds of tickets. Type-A tickets pay $1 of it rains tomorrow whereas Type-B tickets pay $1 if it doesn't.

Your Mom says "I'm going to buy one ticket for you. Which would you prefer, Type-A or Type-B?"

If you're rational and have a sincere preference for a Type-A, you must think it's more likely than not it'll rain tomorrow.

Example #2:

You get home and your older brother starts ridiculing you, saying "There's less than a 30% chance of rain tomorrow. You picked the wrong ticket".

You think he's blowing smoke and reply "If you really think so, why don't you go out and by a Type-B ticket? They only cost 50 cents."

Your older brother ignores you and walks away. You think you've made your point. He wasn't as confident as he was letting on.

Example #3:

Your older brother tells you the chance of rain tomorrow is 80%. You think he's blowing smoke.

So you put him to the test and offer him a bet: You'll pay him $1 if rains and he'll pay you $3 if he doesn't.

Your older brother ignores you and walks away. You think you've made your point. If he were really that confident, he'd have taken the bet.

-----------------------------

Back to the present case.

If Bill's being honest about his degree of confidence that Vista will ship by January 2007, he'd have to think Wil's offer is a good deal.

Moreover Wil has no insider info whereas Bill is the Insider-In-Chief. That puts Wil at an incredible disadvantage. It's not quite as bad as betting God whether it will rain tomorrow, but it's a whole lot worse than making the same bet with your older brother.

Why should Bill pass on this wonderful opportunity to pick up an extra ten thousand dollars?

Ten thousand dollars is a lot of money. In the hands of a well-run charity it might be enough to save a few lives. It would certainly be enough to alleviate a some misery.

-----------------------------

Remember what's at issue.

Wil's neither saying he knows better than Bill when Vista will ship, nor claiming to know something no one else does, nor denying Bill's given a lot to charity.

The issue is whether Bill was trying to inform or whether he was trying to deceive when he said there's an 80% chance Vista will ship by January 2007.

THAT's the issue.

All Wil's doing is providing a means to shed some light on the matter. Sounds to me like an act of public service.

-----------------------------

If Wil's style, personality or 'tude bothers you, factor him out. Write to journalists and suggest the next time they have a chance, ask Bill if he's willing to accept a bet on those terms, yes or no?

Thanks to Wil, the question can't be dismissed as "hypothetical". But that doesn't mean he's the best person to ask it.

July 14, 2006 4:29 PM

 
Anonymous jd said...

I wish Bill had been asked some follow up questions during the original interview. Eg,

If you're 80% confident Vista will ship by January 2007, you must be 50% confident it will ship earlier. How much earlier?

Or, with a nod to Steve McConnell's new book Software Estimation>, what are your best case and worst case estimates? Are you 90% confident Vista will ship during that time? If not adjust your best and worse case estimates so you are 90% confident and tell us what you come up with.

I wish the same sorts of questions were asked whenever anyone representing a publicly traded company made statements about expected release dates for a major software product, whether it's Bill Gates, Steve Jobs or dear Aunt Sally.

I wouldn't be surprised if some or all of those questions went unanswered, but I'd still like to see them raised.

July 14, 2006 4:57 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"...although in my mind you can't wash blood money by giving some percentage of it to charities..."

Troll alert!

:)

July 14, 2006 5:13 PM

 
Blogger Abhi Beckert said...

Troll alert!

Excuse me? You're calling someone a troll because he voiced an opinion that's shared by many, many, people. That would make you the troll.

July 15, 2006 2:45 AM

 
Blogger Sören 'chucker' Kuklau said...

"If you're 80% confident Vista will ship by January 2007, you must be 50% confident it will ship earlier."

Wow, that's some interesting logic. Where the heck did you get that from?

"How much earlier?"

It's obvious to anyone with any knowledge whatsoever of software development that Microsoft is not going to ship early. So, pointless question.

July 15, 2006 5:12 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you'd like to get in on some of this action, call your broker and buy puts on MSFT. I have one friend who made his fortune buying $50 puts for 30 cents, and selling them a month later for three dollars. The most satisfying thing about it, he told me, was knowing that microsoft was the counterparty on both of the trades.

-jcr

July 15, 2006 10:17 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BTW, responding to an earlier comment... let me point out something about teams at Apple: They're a *lot* smaller than you think.

-jcr

July 15, 2006 10:20 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Apple fans, why everybody is "pushing" so hard so that "Vista" is really coming out on time?

Why entice the snake to come out?

Why not just keep it delaying itself, let the Vista guys keep busy "postponing" their own launch, let them "happily do that" -- without disturbance ... hence during that time the better MacOS can widely dominate?

Just my 2 cents of view and logic. :-)

July 15, 2006 7:58 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

比尔盖茨不会接受你的挑战的,因为它足够有钱。

July 15, 2006 8:14 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The reason that we really want Vista to ship, is that there are a lot of people delaying their switch to the Mac in hopes that Vista might finally be tolerable.

Of course, I also plan to buy a lot of MSFT puts right about the time that the press starts to admit what a collossal waste of time the last six years have been for the Windows world. I might pick up some shares in Linux vendors, too.

-jcr

July 15, 2006 8:18 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nice publicity stunt...

July 16, 2006 2:04 AM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Nice publicity stunt...

HEADLINE: Blogger uses public blog as a way to get attention for his ideas!

(In other news, a cat uses meowing as a way to get pet, and a local man uses a fork as a way to get food into his mouth.)

July 16, 2006 3:36 AM

 
Blogger xxdesmus said...

I'll give you 4:1 odds that Apple doesn't increase it's market share like some people are suggesting.

There, I said it.

July 16, 2006 6:24 AM

 
Anonymous John C. Welch said...

"Committees never have vision.
They have meetings."

Me

July 16, 2006 11:18 AM

 
Anonymous Kent said...

Lighten up people! Why are you taking this post so seriously? Get a sense of humor already... This is Will's blog and he can say whatever he wants to say. If it offends your uptight asses, or your uptight sensibilites, don't read it. Or, read it, and then act all serious and indignant and then post flames so I can laugh at you.

I'll let all of you know when I've posted my jokes about Bill Gates mother on my blog. I'm on the process of preparing them. As a matter of fact, I'm going to makes snaps about all of your mothers. That includes Will.

With that said:

- Bill Gates IS A philanthropist: do the research.

- Vista will not ship by Jan. Talked to anyone who works on Visata lately? They've got way too much work to do... Trust me here. It doesn't take a Will S. to figure this one out ;) When it doesn't ship, I'll pretend like I'm surprised. If it does ship, I won't have to pretend, and the MS fanbois can laugh at me. I won't post flaming comments on their blogs unless they ask me to because it gives their lives meaning.

- 2% - 3% of "market share" blah blah blah.... matters not. OSX is a great OS no matter how you look at it. If only they'd chunk or heavily modify the Mach kernel...

- It is indeed possible to be FOR one thing and still not be against OTHER things. This is crazy idea I know...

Now for a hackneyed joke:

What is the difference between Vista and 10.5 Leopard? MS employees are excited about Leopard.

July 16, 2006 1:51 PM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

xxdesmus:

I'll take that bet. Seriously. How much money would you like to put up? Name the amount.

-W

July 16, 2006 4:05 PM

 
Anonymous n-blue said...

Real stupid topic of the Mac rotten brain!pointless.

July 17, 2006 3:24 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not a computer genius. But can you explain to me why MSFT has a bigger market % then the rest of the OS's out there? Even if he did steal in the beginning, why does everyone love Robinhood so much?
And if MSFT is so crappie, why don’t the others bundle together to create something marvelous, that will cost less and out perform MSFT?
I know that everyone has his own opinion but what is so bad about MSFT then the rest of world?

“I, on the other hand, am just some guy. I don't even read the news about Microsoft much, except when you guys get slapped with another antitrust lawsuit or fine, or when you try to buy your way out of hell by giving Windows software to another school or something.”

What is it? You DO read about MSFT or NOT. So make up your mind.

It you can not beat them, just join them and make the difference and be glad you have some market %.

July 17, 2006 7:46 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can I get on this bet?

July 17, 2006 11:07 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wil,

I like your work and you guys make killer apps for the Mac, but that post was a bit uncalled for and appears to be a troll for generating sales more than anything. Time to prove yourself to the blogging world...

So here's a bet I am sure you won't be man enough to take. If you are so shit hot with your fistful of awards that you can step-up to a guy who's wealth you will never amass in 10 lifetimes, then why not be man enough to step up and show him how it's done?

What I am saying is this, take a job at Microsoft and be part of the solution, not part of the problem (or the annoying Monday morning quarterback). I GUARANTEE you that we can put you in touch with the right recruiters and have you hired within a month.

I am an Apple freak too, but I can tell you this much...people aren't as bad as you think they are at MSFT. The management, that's another issue, but they aren't any different than any other huge bloated corporation. The people making things happen there are truly talented...so why don't you go lend a helping hand?

That's if you are man enough to put your money where your mouth is. $10,000 says you will LIKE working there and find a new career and outlook on life while you're at it.

How's THAT for layin the smackdown and steppin up? What's it gonna be tough guy? Shall we order your shiny new blue badge?

July 17, 2006 11:43 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dude, are you serious? Go to work for the evil empire and save it?

That makes about as much sense as becoming a communist in 1986 and trying to save the Soviet Union.

MS is the new IBM. Get over it.

-jcr

July 17, 2006 4:05 PM

 
Blogger groovinkim said...

i'd always assumed that donating windows to schools was done for marketing purposes... thousands of young people learning how to use your product = invaluable. many non-technologically-inclined people would rather use whatever os/program they already know how to use vs. learning another (regardless of how difficult it is to switch). which isn't to say that m$-related charities don't do plenty of genuinely charitable things related to education, but i'm not certain that is one of them.

as far as wil's comment about "him and his republican friends"... it doesn't seem as though bill is a clearcut republican. here's a site tracking his campaign contributions... appears to be 33% democrat, 36% republican.. s'pose the other 31% is various independent parties.

i haven't used vista, but i've seen it in use. it seemed as though the main changes were to make it look/function as much like os x as possible. (widgets, spotlight, etc.)

July 17, 2006 4:56 PM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

That's if you are man enough to put your money where your mouth is. $10,000 says you will LIKE working there and find a new career and outlook on life while you're at it.

Oooh, do you double-dog dare me?

Look, I had the chance to work for Microsoft directly out of college, I turned it down then, too.

Remember that line in "Princess Bride" where Mantoyo says, "I give you my word as a Spaniard," and the Dread Pirate Roberts says, "No good -- I've known too many Spaniards."

Well, I have a ton of friends who are ex-Microsoft. Surprisingly, none of them are pining for the good old days when their cool projects got axed by management because they don't "help sell copies of Windows."

I am lending a helping hand, but I'm lending it to Apple. I don't think Microsoft is completely full of devils, and Apple is staffed entirely by The Chosen People. I just think Apple has a MUCH better chance of changing the computing world for the better. They've got better technology, and they've got a better focus on what matters in computing (eg, making it fun.) And, frankly, I like that they don't eschew Open Source, or secretly fund companies' lawsuits against Linux.

When Apple takes the #1 spot (and I'll make a side-bet that it's within 10 years) I'll be working for the guy who is #2. It's always more interesting to work for the underdog -- they've got nothing to protect and are willing to try crazy ideas.

-Wil

July 17, 2006 5:33 PM

 
Anonymous Karen Delano said...

Personnally, I think Wil said something we all were thinking, 80% = no chance :) Besides I use Macs, so AFAIK Vista isn't showing me anything new. And on a side note, I am very glad Wil doesn't work for the "evil empire" :D (BTW-that was meant a joke), and created Delicious Library. DL was one of the reasons I switched to Macs, but now even if I never open DL again, I would never switch back to Any version of Windows. Its bad enough that I have to deal with all of the Xtreme Patience trials at work, not doing it at home.

July 17, 2006 6:47 PM

 
Blogger Gordon Charlton said...

Anonymous asked:

can you explain to me why MSFT has a bigger market % then the rest of the OS's out there?

Popular is not the same as good.

popular music != good music
popular writers != good writers
popular cars != good cars

and so on...

July 18, 2006 2:06 AM

 
Anonymous John C. Welch said...

Microsoft has the market share they do because of IBM, (early on), and IBM's muscle at the time, along with Big Blue not really caring about the PC until it was far too late.

They also were geniuses at selling their crap to VPs who didn't really understand what the issues were, but were easily swayed, and able to commit their company to the "Microsoft Way".

July 18, 2006 4:20 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oooh, do you double-dog dare me?

Yep - actually I do. ;-) Let me stress again that I am NOT a Microsoftie, but I have seen a different side of them lately. And at Apple, I am really starting to dislike the direction that they are going in. I think too many people got big egos as a result of Apple's recent success and it is clouding good judgement in Cupertino. The engineers and designers at Apple are incredible and top notch, but Apple's worst enemy is Apple itself. Leading the internal self-destruct engine is the sales force. The sales team at Apple is staffed by egomaniacal, underqualified, full of crap cheeseballs and their bad attitude is driving customers away.

On the MSFT side of things, I would never tell you to go do work on the Windows team, that is just another story in itself. They have a loooong way to go before they catch up to OS X. But there ARE a bunch of other places within MSFT that I think you could do a lot of good.

From what I see, the next big thing besides Xbox is going to be the web services stuff they are doing. You could contribute a lot to not only the design side of things, but building things like widgets and other technologies that will improve the user experience for their products. As a side note, there are a TON of Mac's in Redmond. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Microsoft is changing for the better it appears. Although they are the majority stake holder in the OS market, I see them as an underdog NOW in the web services area. Apple is no longer the enemy, it is now Google and Yahoo. The old Microsoft of when your buddies were probably working there is more than likely gone. And now with new blood being injected into the company, it seems to me like the ideal time to make an impact.

Lets also not forget that their stock is at an all-time low. In my opinion, getting in NOW is in your best interest from the standpoint that you have the most to gain, where as Apple's stock is more than likely peaked and got nowhere to go but down. Mind you, that's assuming you even get stock at Apple. And unless you are a high-level manager, I wouldn't count on it (EVERY MSFT employee gets stock coming in). The public and analysts have placed too many high expectations on Apple (and unjustly so) that just aren't realistic for ANY company to achieve. So where would YOU want to be in 5-10 years as a result? My bet is that Microsoft will be on the upswing shortly. If I were a betting man, I would put my $$$ on the web services being the next driving factor for these companies. When Microsoft wants to dominate something, they stop at no cost to do it. I want to be on THAT team. Something to think about...

July 18, 2006 9:34 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why is it that the news will 'report' on a near introduction of an "iPod-Killer" from Microsoft and go so far as describing a detailed list of features? We're even reading that "ya, that would definately end it for Apple's iPod", huh? Did I miss a product introduction somewhere.
Say what you like about Apple, they do not sell futures.

July 18, 2006 9:34 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just to clarify -- I think he said they'd ship an 80% complete O/S in January

sounds about right, huh?

July 18, 2006 12:54 PM

 
Anonymous Bryan Batchelder said...

You are trying to look ballsy when you know that BillG will never acknowledge, let alone take on, your bet.

If you are so sure that MSFT will not be able to ship Vista on time - why not change your bet such that if they succeed...you will donate $X to charity Y.

Then I would be impressed.

Until you do that, your "bet" is just useless posturing.

July 18, 2006 2:54 PM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Bryan wrote: Then I would be impressed.

Well, I do live to impress you, a random stranger!

Wait, no I don't. So, if you'd like to make your own bet with Bill, go ahead. I've already laid mine out.

If you are so sure that MSFT will not be able to ship Vista on time - why not change your bet such that if they succeed...you will donate $X to charity Y.

I thought about this, but it seems mean to take money from a charity just because Microsoft can't ship software.

July 18, 2006 3:00 PM

 
Anonymous fooshy said...

anonymous said...

"And if MSFT is so crappie, why don’t the others bundle together to create something marvelous, that will cost less and out perform MSFT?"

...ummm it's called LINUX, you might've heard of it...

July 18, 2006 9:01 PM

 
Blogger Russet Shadows said...

Bill's Republican friends? Uhm, who are they, exactly? The ultra-rich tend to be establishment liberals, not Republicans (Kennedy, Rockefeller, etc), and Gates' foundation contributes a lot of money to Planned Parenthood. Sorry guys, Republican that ain't. And oh, software programmers who don't know jack about politics should spend more time programming and less time telling us about Bush. All those interface design awards are poor makeup for your Bush Derangement Syndrome, Will.

July 19, 2006 10:04 AM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Russet: Someone else already pointed out in the comments Bill splits his donations to politicians almost evenly -- which basically means he's only interested in currying favor with the ruling elite, not actually supporting some positive change.

You should be really certain of your facts before you start telling other people to shut up because of their ignorance. It looks bad when you're wrong.

Also, you spelled my name wrong.

July 19, 2006 3:14 PM

 
Anonymous Recompile said...

Legg said...
Is this the same Bill Gates who's just stepped down from M$ to work full-time for his "I'm going to give all my billions away" foundation? That frugal Bill Gates? I guess if you save a few billions, then give away a few billions, everyone remembers you for having saved those billions...

I saw him say in a video interview that he feels that he can, and needs, to make a substantial profit. So much for his selfless act.


Recompile

July 19, 2006 4:38 PM

 
Anonymous Chad said...

Ah, clever way of trying to sell Delicious Monster. And it worked for me, I finally purchased Delicious Library, which I'm glad to have done since the price bounced back up to $40 about two days later. Since I don't own a scanner yet, it makes it somewhat tedious to input books and games by hand, but it should prove useful in trying to sell off some old books.

July 20, 2006 8:50 PM

 
Anonymous B Szlachta said...

Kudos to you, Wil. I'm behind you all the way.

Wow, the fragile, defensive MS apologists are popping up like slimy toadstools. No need to refute their "arguments", which are hilarious enough as is.

My favorite: "...so far Bill Gates has done a pretty good job at releasing the next generation of operating systems".

Yeah, six years late and counting. Maybe to MS and its fanboy cult, that *is* a good job.

Keep laying 'em low, Wil.

July 21, 2006 2:22 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

[...]They also were geniuses at selling their crap to VPs who didn't really understand what the issues were, but were easily swayed, and able to commit their company to the "Microsoft Way".[...]

I'm sorry but every software can be seen as a piece of crap. This is because the real issue lies between the chair and the keyboard. The "issue" being either the user or the developer.

July 21, 2006 3:38 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

[...]They also were geniuses at selling their crap to VPs who didn't really understand what the issues were, but were easily swayed, and able to commit their company to the "Microsoft Way".[...]

I'm sorry but every software can be seen as a piece of crap. This is because the real issue lies between the chair and the keyboard. The "issue" being either the user or the developer.

Regarding Mr. Fishmeal's challenge, I don't see the point. There could be one if we were in the 90s. But we're not (last time I check at least).

July 21, 2006 3:41 PM

 
Anonymous jermichael said...

Nice job of JD to bring logic into an obvious stream of opinions and rants. Ad Hominem anyone?

Wil's point gets easily lost in the rants about Mac v. PC, Bill is bad, Bill is good, etc.

Is Bill's forecast meant to soften the blow when MS misses the date (likely IMHO), to specifically mislead when he know there is little chance to release in that timeframe (possibly), or to provide an accurate account to the masses.

More importantly this forecast affects large and small business' upgrade cycles, Wall Street guidance,
3PP upgrade cycles, etc. so if it is purposely inaccurate or misleading (read dishonest) then more people than Wil should take issue.

-j-

July 22, 2006 1:13 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wil,

You should have simply bought out and dismantled your competition or used your legal monopoly to force resellers to bundle your software instead of your competition. You could even make sweet prognostications like the internet is fad and will go away soon or that your hugely late next version MIGHT be ready in time. If that all fails you could run around on stage in front of your employees and yell like a monkey.

I think you owe Bill an apology because he gives away a lot of money, only because he would have to pay it in taxes if he didn't.

July 23, 2006 10:56 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

On the last comment. You're making fun of a guy who gives away millions (if not a billion)of dollars to charities and helps to cure deadly diseases. I doubt you give away 5% of your income. Just because you guys don't know how to use Windows, you just gotta be crabby. I love Apple products, I have an iMac, I'm getting a MacBook. I love Apple as much as all the hippy freak-artists out there. But I don't hate Windows either. I have a Windows PC and it runs fine. It almost never freezes, and my Mac freezes sometimes too. Don't claim Mac OS X is so superior, Apple still only has like 8% market share. And Vista is still a while away, and I'm hearing good reviews already.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

And don't make fun of Windows before it's released.

July 24, 2006 3:16 PM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Anonymous: Your assertion is that guys who give away millions of dollars of charities should be allowed to lie?

It's funny that in your attack you make two or three completely unfounded assumptions about me and then flame me for them. Why did you limit yourself? Why not make fun of me because I'm blind, live on the moon, and eat only purple foods?

July 24, 2006 3:26 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wil, I love you, and I want to have your babies.
I will do this for only a small fee.

-Christina Wiley

July 25, 2006 10:10 AM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Christina: What, no photo? Come on, I'm very shallow.

July 25, 2006 2:14 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wait, you eat purple food on the Moon?

Okay, i'm a "live and let live" kinda guy, but some things ain't right.

The Moon is CLEARLY a "yellow food only" zone.

July 26, 2006 7:39 AM

 
Blogger Henk said...

How many of you guys actually are running a beta of Vista as we speak? I do not think you guys fully understand how much different Vista is from XP. It's like going from OS 9 to OS X on a Mac.

The complexity is enormous.

Having said that: I will take that bet too. I am messing with the Vista Beta (latest build 5472) and it still sucks the balls of a hairy camel, thats how bad it is...

July 26, 2006 2:14 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

hahha, they wont make it: http://www.macworld.com/news/2006/07/27/vista/index.php

July 27, 2006 2:35 PM

 
Anonymous Joram Oudenarde said...

Well Mr. Shipley, you just won the deal... M$ is already trying to give themselves some room for an extra delay. Congrats, hehe.

It wouldn't suprise me is there will be yet another delay... wanna bet that it's going to be 4th quarter in 2007? :)

July 28, 2006 1:51 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Feeling like a jackass yet?

Windows Vista is shipping on time, sorry.

November 17, 2006 11:38 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have and am using Vista Enterprise, it's the RTM. I guess this means you lost.

November 17, 2006 12:02 PM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

No, I'd feel like a jackass if he took my bet, but he didn't have the balls to do it, so I didn't lose anything.

Too bad.

November 17, 2006 1:32 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well - Bill probably didn't take your bet either because he never heard of you or because he doesn't care about small fry like you.

So much for putting your money where your mouth is. You just made a complete fool of yourself in public - especially for all the comments made about Gates.

November 18, 2006 3:14 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Didn't have the balls ? I doubt he even heard about this pathetic charade.

Seriously man, you're a loser.

November 18, 2006 4:14 AM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Seriously man, you're a loser.

It's impudent to question your mom's taste in men.

November 18, 2006 4:30 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm using the released version of VISTA ultimate and think it's great!

'nuff said.

November 18, 2006 9:53 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bets work the other way, you're supposed to give more money if you're so sure.

November 18, 2006 7:20 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

it's nice to see how much coverage a r-tard with a fistful of design awards can get for being a r-tard.

But hey, don't let the being a r-tard stop you from enjoying your design awards. The whole fistful of them

November 18, 2006 9:11 PM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

I enjoy your mom more.

November 18, 2006 9:49 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh man, this is rich... Shipley makes an idiot of himself, and resorts to "I slept with your Mom" jokes in defense. I'll have to dig back through the archives here to see if there are similar brilliant nuggets of prose...

Seriously: did you really expect Bill Gates to take your bet? Does he even know who you are? Does he even care?

He bet a considerable amount of corp resources on the Vista release date.

Face it: you made a statement to the community that MSFT wouldn't ship on time, and you were wrong. Surely you can admit to that and move on?

November 19, 2006 10:57 AM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

I moved on your mom.

November 19, 2006 11:01 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Wil, shut the f up and write software.

November 20, 2006 11:10 AM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Your mom.

November 20, 2006 12:34 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

-giggle- what a stupid fuck...thinking Gates would even piss on you let alone take your bet...I'd die of shock if he even knew you existed. You propeller-heads really crack me up.

I noticed you still haven't admitted you were wrong. What a loser. My $10,000 bet is that this post doesn't make it...

November 21, 2006 12:21 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"My $10,000 bet is that this post doesn't make it..."



Damn! Good thing we didn't shake on it...

November 21, 2006 12:23 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

jesus your a loser.

November 28, 2006 11:23 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm sure Gates was never aware of your bet. But please, in the future, hide in a hole.. please. We Mac users don't need you.

November 28, 2006 2:54 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wil,

You wrote,

Russet: Someone else already pointed out in the comments Bill splits his donations to politicians almost evenly -- which basically means he's only interested in currying favor with the ruling elite, not actually supporting some positive change.

You should be really certain of your facts before you start telling other people to shut up because of their ignorance. It looks bad when you're wrong.

Also, you spelled my name wrong.


That doesn't appear to be the case. See OpenSecrets.

I do agree, though that "You should be really certain of your facts before you start telling other people to shut up because of their ignorance. It looks bad when you're wrong."

And hey, I like your blog. You're amusing, and sometimes you have a good point or two.

I also like poetic justice.

January 03, 2007 10:17 AM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

That doesn't appear to be the case.

I'm not sure what you're pointing out. On the first two pages I see donations from William Gates of MICROSOFT to the "Republican Party of Washington" for $5,000 and "Patty Murray," who is a Democratic senator for Washington, for $2,000.

You said something about being sure of your facts and poetic justice?

January 03, 2007 3:35 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Vista is gonna be great. i read a review on "Sound on Sound" and it is supposed efficiant for those into recording audio. i use a stripped version of xp and no problems loading multiple vsti's and vst's but Who cares when it hits the market. you cant hate them for perfecting there os. its not a lie its simply an 80% chance. is that not hard to understand? its not some conspiracy.

but whats up with mac users "always" hating on microsoft??? who cares what system you use? you paid $2500 for yours, well i built mine for $1800 and there is nothing you can do that i cant.
why hate?

January 31, 2007 11:59 AM

 
Blogger Wil Shipley said...

Wow, your literacy is astounding. I am motivated to take advice from you simply based on the power of your words.

Also, I've heard Vista can't handle csdfhjs or fhgys. And that it'll flay your mind.

January 31, 2007 2:02 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

truth is that he should put his money where his mouth is and i fully support your statement.

February 08, 2007 7:29 AM

 
Anonymous Steve said...

Wil Shipley said:

"And that it'll flay your mind."

:::giggles at the Nethack joke:::

February 27, 2007 12:23 PM

 

Post a Comment

<< Home